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US Recession 2022: The Biggest in History

42 Views· 07/18/22
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US Recession 2022: The Biggest in History.
If you look at every US. Recession well since World War II, you'll see two things always happen the GDP, the measure of economic output, goes down and unemployment goes up for most employees.

Americans, when do you feel a recession? It's when you start worrying about your job.

The GDP is going down. Even the head of the Federal Reserve says a recession is certainly a possibility.
We do know it's a recession. This recession is not like anything. We have ever seen before.

Here's why the reason the GDP and unemployment are always together is because they feed on each other. When businesses lay off workers, people spend less money, which means businesses make fewer profits and layoff workers. A recession can begin at any of these points, and in 2022, people could cut back on spending.

Just look at consumer sentiment, a measure that weighs how people are feeling about the economy, and whether they plan to spend money soon. Generally, when people respond, that they feel more pessimistic, a recession follows. And right now, they're feeling about as good as during the Great Recession in 2008, that’s because of inflation. Not a great sign for the GDP.

If people are frustrated by high inflation, if they think inflation is going to stick around for a while, they might pull back, convince companies to cut back, and that leads to worse outcomes for the economy.

But businesses are in a different place than past recessions. Charts show the average corporate profit margin. In the past, profits were in the single digits, leading into several recessions, including 2001.

That was a business-driven recession, where companies over invested.

They decided they had to cut back. In order to rebuild their profit margins, and that led us right into a recession.

The bubble has now burst. I would not argue yet that we've seen the bottom in Nasdaq, or in our tech index. So, are we back in one of those cycles.

Not only are corporate profits in double digits, but the amount of cash they have is close to 4 trillion dollars. Analysts say that's a significant downturn buffer. They might just decide they can weather this storm and not lay off workers, and not cut back on investment, and kind of get us to the other end of this adjustment without a big retrenchment that feeds on itself.

And companies have an incentive to not lose any workers, because many are having problems finding workers in the first place. The labor force participation rate is as low, as it's been in 40 years. And it’s largely due to the pandemic. The rate has been declining for a long time. You can see it in the unfilled job rates, too. As more people leave the labor force, the more job positions become available.

11 million jobs are out there that they just can't find people to fill. Now, to put that in perspective, if you look back at, say, 2019, when the economy was considered to be exceptionally strong, unfilled job openings were 7 million. So, like, here we are talking about a downturn in the economy, and we have 4 million more jobs open than we had even at the height of the last expansion.
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