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Back with another dose of economic reality...
#finance #economics #investing
Thank you for being a part of my channel. I am an 'small-fry' investor that also works in the finance industry. I also am a news-hound and love keeping updated on the latest economic, financial, and business news. Economic 'boom and bust' cycles are very fascinating to me so and I have had some very good luck in the stock market, precious metals and investing in real estate, therefore, I have decided to share my research, knowledge, news digging, and analysis with the world via this channel.
This channel contains news and analysis that often includes 'one mans opinion'. The information conveyed should never be taken as investment advice. Everyone should do their own due diligence and research before making investment and money decisions.
When supplies rose and demand fell, used automobile prices dropped the most in history. Some major carmakers are cutting prices by almost $10,000 as sales plummet! Millions of car buyers are underwater, panicking lenders. The situation is dire.
The average used car in America costs $29,533, down from the record high of $31,095 in April 2022 but still 45% higher than in 2019. Used car prices rose roughly 70% between 2020 and 2022, and despite strong falls since December, there's more negative ahead.
Although used automobile costs have skyrocketed, Americans should expect a 50% to 60% reduction. Experts think the price crash will hurt some motorists, but we may never return to "normal" levels.
They estimated that the car market meltdown might wipe out $1 trillion in new and used cars. Financial bubbles burst. Millions of car owners owing more than their cars are worth when the used car pricing bubble broke. So, those overpaying for old cars may soon default on their auto loans.
In the 26-year history of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, wholesale auto prices declined 15% month-over-month. Supply-side balance may take years. Jerry's automobile insurance comparison site revealed that the U.S. vehicle market won't return soon.
Car sales fell 8% in 2023, the worst start since 2011, when the economy was trying to recover from the Great Recession. Compared to a historic average of 17 million, automakers sold 13.9 million cars, trucks, SUVs, and vans. We're already seeing the market's painful consequences of falling demand as analysts estimate sales to drop by 1 million in the coming months.
Everywhere are red flags. Wells Fargo's vehicle loan losses were larger than projected amid the bank collapse. Fifth Third Bank (FITB) is cutting loan originations, perhaps anticipating threats. This may cause the “biggest financial crisis in history,” according to Elon Musk. The liabilities are much higher than lenders like to accept. As banks collapsed, the automobile price bubble created a lot of system risk. Automaker bankruptcies and numerous bank failures are initiating a 2008-style crisis that will be terrible.
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They are desperately trying to plug one leak in the system after another, but what happens if the entire system suddenly comes crashing down all around them? Back on January 4th, I specifically warned that our problems would “greatly accelerate over the next 12 months”, and that is precisely what has happened. We are now in the midst of the most severe banking crisis since 2008, and it could soon get a whole lot worse. We have already witnessed the second and third largest bank failures in the entire history of our nation, and now it is being reported that 186 more banks “are at risk of failure”…
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Jim Rickards warns that we're weeks away from a terrible collapse, where disinflation could wreak havoc on the value of the dollar.
Jim Rickards warns about the recession and economic collapse in 2023
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Are you a frequent flyer? Do you find even airlines' first-class service more frustrating than fulfilling? You can charter a jet, but the greatest freedom comes when you own one. Before you buy, though, you should consider whether the investment is truly justified.
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Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Capital, warns that the U.S. banking system will keep money safe, but the value will be worth less. “Every one of your listeners is gonna see the value of their savings collapse as prices go through the roof,” Schiff said.
Recorded 3/15/23 with Chris Cuomo of CUOMO on NewsNation.
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#economy #SVB #inflation
Bank stocks are once again under pressure as the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse and ensuing regulatory circus continues. Asset prices are being inflated, notably among dollar alternatives such as gold, silver, and bitcoin.
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#BankCollapse #CreditSuisse #FinanceNews
Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate bank have all collapsed throwing up a warning signs that something horrible is happening in the economy. But what's the truth here? This is a story of incompetence, a changing economic environment and political lobbying.
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“I think we are in a once-in-a-lifetime financial transition, and I think that everybody needs to sort of strap in for that,” says Rana Foroohar of the Financial Times in this excerpt from the new FRONTLINE documentary “Age of Easy Money.”
This journalism is made possible by viewers like you. Support your local PBS station here: http://www.pbs.org/donate.
Premiering March 14, 2023, “Age of Easy Money” examines how the policies of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, ushered in an age of easy money — and explores the potential consequences of the Fed’s decision last year to start hiking interest rates at a historic pace in an effort to fight inflation.
This excerpt shows how many economic experts FRONTLINE spoke with alluded to a particular quote to describe the current economic moment, in which the risks and excesses that had been building in the age of easy money are beginning to surface.
“When interest rates start to rise, and the tide pulls out, as Warren Buffett would say ... you begin to see who's not been swimming with their shorts on,” Foroohar says in the clip.
“Age of Easy Money,” a two-hour special, premieres Tues., March 14, at 9/8c on PBS stations (check local listings), at pbs.org/frontline, in the PBS Video App and on FRONTLINE’s YouTube channel.
The director, producer and correspondent of “Age of Easy Money” is James Jacoby. The producer is Anya Bourg. The senior producer is Frank Koughan. The editor-in-chief and executive producer of FRONTLINE is Raney Aronson-Rath.
Explore additional reporting related to "Age of Easy Money" on our website: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/front....line/documentary/age
#documentary #economy #interestrates
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Additional funding is provided by the Abrams Foundation; the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation; Park Foundation; the Heising-Simons Foundation; and the FRONTLINE Journalism Fund with major support from Jon and Jo Ann Hagler on behalf of the Jon L. Hagler Foundation, and additional support from Koo and Patricia Yuen.
High inflation. Fear of recession. Disruptions, like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. How did the U.S. economy get here? A two-hour documentary special traces the road to this moment, and the role of the Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank.
This journalism is made possible by viewers like you. Support your local PBS station here: http://www.pbs.org/donate.
FRONTLINE investigates the Fed’s epic economic experiment to revive the U.S. economy with what has been called an “easy money” policy and the far-reaching and sometimes unintended consequences.
“If we hadn't been driving our economy for 14 years with easy money and then tried to really quickly undo that now, we wouldn't be having these problems,” former top banking regulator Sheila Bair said in the documentary.
From the 2008 recession, to the COVID pandemic, to the rise in inflation, to the current economic uncertainty, “Age of Easy Money” charts the American economy’s tumultuous course, the fragility of the financial system and the widening gap between Wall Street and Main Street.
The documentary examines what led to the Fed’s recent decisions to hike interest rates at a historic pace and probes the ongoing effects, offering a comprehensive and timely examination of the role of the institution at the heart of America’s economy.
The documentary is supported by The WNET Group’s Chasing the Dream, a public media initiative that examines poverty, justice and economic opportunity in America.
The director, producer and correspondent of “Age of Easy Money” is James Jacoby. The producer is Anya Bourg. The senior producer is Frank Koughan. The editor-in-chief and executive producer of FRONTLINE is Raney Aronson-Rath.
For more reporting in connection with this investigation, visit FRONTLINE’s website:
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#Documentary #FederalReserve #Inflation #Economy
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FRONTLINE is produced at GBH in Boston and airs nationwide on PBS.
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Additional support for FRONTLINE is provided by the Abrams Foundation; the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation; Park Foundation; the Heising-Simons Foundation; and the FRONTLINE Journalism Fund with major support from Jon and Jo Ann Hagler on behalf of the Jon L. Hagler Foundation, and additional support from Koo and Patricia Yuen.
Joe Brown from Heresy Financial stops by to talk about the Credit Suisse collapse and the bailout of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank here in the US. The Fed's fingerprints are all over all of these banks.
Check out Joe's Channel, Heresy Financial: https://www.youtube.com/@UC4fg8o6oUkkZDLaC6eAZKwQ
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#CreditSuisse #EndTheFed #bankcollapse
Environmentalists are furious that the Biden Administration approved drilling in Alaska called the Willow Project. Recall that the President said that NO new drilling would be approved if he were elected while he was campaigning but that was…locker room talk. The U.S. Department of the Interior framed this as a reduction in the scope of the project. But many in Alaska are for this project for the economic boom it can bring to the region. The Alaska Native village corporation and Alaska Democratic Representative Mary Peltola are all in favor of the project. So is this certain death to the climate or climate change rhetoric bordering on religious fervor?
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-----
About Clayton and Natali Morris:
Clayton Morris is a former Fox News anchor. In Redacted, Clayton and his wife Natali take an in-depth look at the legal, social, financial, and personal issues that matter to you. They want to set the record straight and bring you the stories nobody else is telling. Along with the facts and the full picture, Redacted offers real-world analysis without an agency driven by corporate overloads. With Clayton’s extensive journalism experience, he isn’t afraid to demand the truth from authorities. Redacted is an independent platform, unencumbered by external factors or restrictive policies, on which Clayton and Natali Morris bring you quality information, balanced reporting, constructive debate, and thoughtful narratives.
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"Are all U.S. banks in trouble because some of them are? That is what Moody’s thinks. Moody’s Investors Service announced that it cut its outlook on the entire U.S. banking system from “stable” to “negative.” Yikes.
This is a rare admission that the U.S. banking system is fundamentally intertwined. Moody’s says that even banks that have not failed still have “unrealized losses” and “uninsured depositors” that may be at risk.
Yet somehow the U.S. stock market rallied on Tuesday, perhaps because the U.S. inflation number was the lowest we’ve seen in a year at 6%."
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The U.S. car market is collapsing before our very eyes, and used car prices just faced the biggest month-over-month drop on record as supplies went up while demand vanished. Auto sales are plunging so deep that some famous carmakers are already slashing prices by over $10,000! Meanwhile, lenders are in panic as millions of buyers see themselves underwater on their auto loans. The situation is chaotic and the outlook is alarming.
The average used car price in America currently costs $29,533, down from the record high of $31,095 reached in April 2022, but still 45% higher than the 2019 average. Between 2020 and 2022, used car prices surged by almost 70%, and despite some sharp losses seen since December, there’s more downside ahead.
Just as used car prices have spiked in an unprecedented manner, Americans should get ready for used car prices to drop by 50% to 60% from where they are today. The price crash is going to be significant – and quite painful for some motorists – but still, we may never come back to “normal” levels, experts say.
In a recent analysis, they forecasted that by the end of the car market crash, roughly $1 trillion worth of both new and used cars could be wiped out from the system. Like any financial bubble, what goes up, must come down. The used car price bubble burst means that millions of car owners will owe more than what their car is worth. In other words, all people overpaying for used cars right now may see themselves underwater on their auto loans soon.
The latest reading of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index showed that wholesale auto prices dropped a whopping 15% month-over-month, the largest annualized price decline ever in the 26-year history of the index. On the supply side, it could take years for a healthy balance to be achieved again. A recent study conducted by the car insurance comparison site Jerry found that the U.S. auto market won’t recover in the foreseeable future.
In fact, car sales had a terrible start to a year in 2023, going down by 8%, the lowest total since 2011 when the economy was trying to reignite after the Great Recession. Automakers sold 13.9 million cars, trucks, SUVs, and vans, compared to a historic average of 17 million. Analysts are now expecting sales to decline by roughly 1 million in the coming months, and we’re already witnessing the harsh effects plummeting demand can have on the market.
Red flags are emerging everywhere. Amid an ongoing bank collapse, Wells Fargo just reported higher-than-expected losses from auto loans. Meanwhile, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is reducing loan originations, likely seeing the threats on the horizon. No wonder why Elon Musk is saying that this can set off the “biggest financial crisis in history.” The liabilities are far greater than lenders would like to admit. And now that banks started to collapse, we have a ton of system risk stemming from the car price bubble. A 2008-style crash with automaker bankruptcies and widespread bank failures is starting to unfold, and the result will be disastrous.
